本文音频及原文摘自杂志The Economist 2016年第47期，The Americas版块。

Brexit and public opinion

A new poll finds the public split over Brexit’s trade-offs

Nov 19th 2016

THE government is accused of having no plan and of being divided over whether to go for a “hard” or a “soft” Brexit. Yet this may just reflect a division in public opinion[舆论;民意]. That is the conclusion of a new survey, “What Do Voters Want from Brexit?”, conducted by NatCen Social Research, drawing on a panel[1] interviewed before and after the June 23rd referendum, which voted for Brexit by 52-48%. The panel itself was 51% for Leave and 49% for Remain.

The panel likes to have its cake and eat it[鱼和熊掌两者兼得]. Large majorities of Leavers and Remainers back policies that seem soft, such as letting EU migrants stay in Britain, allowing banks to sell services across Europe or maximising[充分利用;最大限度(利用)] free trade. But large majorities also support things that look hard, like tougher migration controls, bringing back customs checks and ending free health care for EU visitors. As John Curtice of Strathclyde University[思克莱德大学], who ran the NatCen poll, puts it, voters want both a soft and a hard Brexit(LR注:与句首likes to have its cake and eat it对应).

Yet the EU is clear that there must be a trade-off between fuller access to the single market and greater control over EU migrants. Asked if they would accept free movement of people to secure freer trade, the panel was 51-49% against. Differences between Remainers and Leavers were large: Remainers preferred market access to migration controls by 70-29%, but Leavers chose the reverse by 70-30%.

Other polls find enthusiasm for migration controls falls if it implies any financial loss. And the young are keener on[(更)热衷于;喜爱] market access and less opposed to migration than the old. Most crucially, Tory[保守党] voters on the panel preferred migration controls to market access by 60-40%, whereas Labour[工党] voters chose the reverse by 65-35%. Since Theresa May is a Tory, this may explain why her government is leaning towards a hard Brexit.

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[1]panel：a small group of people chosen to give advice, make a decision, or publicly discuss their opinions as entertainment （选定的）专家小组