龚炯：不同于美欧困境，中国的经济困境将随疫情消退而缓解

毫无疑问，全球经济正在进入衰退时期。世界各大经济体均呈现出增长放缓和通货膨胀并存的现象。

美国经济今年连续两个季度收缩，而整个西方七国集团在第二季度仅实现了0.2% 的疲软增长率，这还多亏了意大利和加拿大。中国的增长率已经降至0.4%，这是除了2020年因新冠大流行引发的衰退以外，几十年未曾出现过的水平。

欧盟和美国尽管经历了多轮加息，通胀率仍旧居高不下，始终徘徊在8%以上。美联储的加息行动似乎会持续一段时间，而美元走强和资本流入美国，已经在全球范围内造成了一系列破坏性的连锁反应，尤其是对那些以美元计价的、外债负担沉重的新兴经济体。

到目前为止，中国受此影响相对较小，因为国内通胀仍然处于低位，人民币的贬值仍在可控范围内。中国极具弹性的出口部门月复一月、季复一季地带来惊喜，这可能是当前中国经济唯一的好消息。但也有人表示，出口引擎正在失去动力，因为疲软的全球市场最终将反映到对中国制造商品的需求趋缓上。

增长放缓加通货膨胀即滞涨似乎将持续存在。但值得注意的是，中国面临的经济问题与美国和欧盟有很大不同，宏观政策工具因此也不一样。这三个最大经济体的政策制定者如何以及能否协调并带领全球经济走出衰退，仍然是一个巨大的挑战。

美国经济出现问题的根源在于总需求过热。一轮又一轮与新冠疫情相关的经济救济措施—实际上是美联储的印钞计划—终将自食恶果。但美国的就业市场仍然强劲，即使经过几轮加息，8月份的失业率仍低于4%。通货膨胀是多种因素共同作用的结果，包括主要由对俄制裁造成的大宗商品价格上涨、疫情经济纾困对需求的持续影响，以及持续低利率推动过度投资的累积效应。简而言之，这是一种以总需求超过总供给为特征的经济失衡。

欧盟也面临着不均衡，但这是由乌克兰战争导致的总供给短缺所驱动的。目前，飙升的能源价格和能源短缺正困扰着欧洲的生产。欧元区经济强国德国的很多企业都面临经营困难，有些企业被完全淘汰出局。本质上说，问题在于供给侧过冷。

有别于上述问题，中国经济面临的挑战是需求不足，国内消费是目前最薄弱的环节。中国的供应链网络仍在运转，迄今为止被证明是可靠的。但中国不能也不该只通过出口摆脱经济衰退，国内消费必须要回升。中央政府正通过基础设施项目和其他公共支出来推动财政政策，但这些刺激措施往往需要一些时间才能反应在老百姓的口袋里。因为企业界不愿承担更多债务，货币政策似乎暂时停滞不前。通常情况下，人们预计的是，总需求将于疫情发生后立即强劲回升，正如 1918 年西班牙大流感之后的那样。但中国目前尚未进入这个阶段，因为动态清零政策仍在实施。随着各省市继续实施封控措施，消费者的信心和支出不太可能在疫情结束前就得到恢复。

与美国和欧盟相比，中国的处境其实好一些。因为从宏观政策的角度来看，中国面临的挑战相对容易。美国和欧盟必须应对削减需求的棘手问题，而中国则正好相反——需要增加需求。只要取消目前抑制需求和消费的公共卫生政策，疫情后的需求通常就会自动恢复。

因此，我的建议很简单—再耐心坚持一下，等待政策变化。世界上大多数国家已经开始行动（取消疫情管控），中国跟上只是时间问题。解决中国当前经济困难的方法并非经济政策，而是公共卫生政策。

核译：王妍妍、许馨匀

John Gong: China’s economic woes – unlike the US and EU’s – will fade with the pandemic

There is no doubt that the global economy is entering an era of recession. Across the board, among the world’s major economies, we are seeing slower growth coupled with inflation.

The US economy has contracted for two consecutive quarters this year, while the G7 nations managed an anaemic 0.2 per cent growth rate in the second quarter, helped mostly by Italy and Canada. China’s growth figure sank to 0.4 per cent, a level not seen in decades, barring the pandemic-induced dip in 2020.

In the European Union and United States, inflation is still stubbornly high, hovering north of 8 per cent despite rounds of interest rate hikes. And the US Federal Reserve’s rate-hike drive appears likely to continue for a while. The strengthening dollar and the flow of capital to the US have created devastating ripple effects across the globe, especially on the emerging economies overloaded with dollar-denominated external debt.

So far China has been relatively insulated from that, as domestic inflation is still low and the renminbi’s slide is still measured and under control. China’s remarkably resilient exports sector is probably the only bearer of good news for the economy, having delivered surprises month after month and quarter after quarter. But some say the export engine is running out of steam, as global market weakness will eventually be reflected by demand for made-in-China goods.

Stagflation – slow growth coupled with inflation – appears to be here to stay. But it is worth noting that the kind of economic problem we are facing in China is quite different from that in the US and the EU. And as a result, the macro policy instruments are also different.

How and if policymakers in these three largest economies can coordinate and lead the global economy out of recession remains a great challenge.

With the US economy, the cause of the problem is overheated aggregate demand. Rounds of Covid-related economic relief – effectively, the Fed’s money printing scheme – are finally coming back to roost. The US job market is still very strong, with the unemployment rate for August at less than 4 per cent, even after rounds of interest rate hikes.

Inflation is the result of a combination of forces, including the run-ups in commodity prices mostly triggered by sanctions on Russia, the lingering effect of pandemic economic relief on demand, and the accumulative effect of a long era of low interest rates that drove excesses in investment. In short, it is economic disequilibrium characterised by aggregate demand exceeding aggregate supply.

The European Union also faces disequilibrium, but it is driven by the supply shortfall due to the war in Ukraine.

Soaring energy prices and energy shortages are crippling production in Europe right now. Many companies in Germany, the economic powerhouse of the euro zone, are facing operational difficulties. Some are being driven out of business altogether. In essence, the problem rests with overcooling supply.

In China, however, the economic challenge is inadequate demand, with domestic consumption currently being the weakest link. The supply chain network in China is still cranking out goods and has proved to be reliable so far. But the country cannot and should not export its way out of recession.

Domestic consumption will have to pick up. The central government is doing its part in terms of pushing fiscal policies through infrastructure projects and other public expenditure. But these things tend to take a bit of time to percolate down to people’s pockets.

Monetary policy appears to be stalling for the moment, as the corporate world is reluctant to take on more debt. Normally, one would expect the demand side to pick up strongly right after a pandemic, as was the case after the 1918 Spanish flu.

But China isn’t there yet, with the zero-Covid policy still firmly in place. As lockdown measures continue to be implemented here and there across the mainland, consumer confidence and expenditure are not likely to recover before the end of the Covid era.

Indeed, China is in a more comfortable position than the US and EU, because it faces an easier challenge from a macro policy perspective. The US and EU have to deal with the painful problem of curtailing demand, while in China, it is the opposite – the need to increase demand.

But demand – post-pandemic demand, in particular – is usually automatic, as long as the public health policy that is constraining demand and consumption is removed.

So my suggestion is simple. Patiently hang in there for a little more, till the policy changes. Most countries in the world have already moved on, and it is just a matter of time before China follows. The cure for China’s current economic difficulties is not economic policy but rather public health policy.

Dr. John Gong, Professor at the University of International Business and Economics, China Forum Expert.

This article was originally published on South China Morning Post on Sep. 28, 2022.