Next Pandemic: Experts Unveil the Most Likely Virus

The next pandemic could spark from a disease with a 40 percent mortality rate within just two decades, top virologists say — warning Covid could have been just the tip of the pandemic iceberg.

According to DailyMail spoke to three virus experts who agreed a respiratory virus — spread via droplets from coughs and sneezes — was most likely to trigger the next fast-spreading disease that causes a global shutdown.

They said the infamous 'disease X' would most likely appear after a farm worker is infected with an animal-borne disease that mutates, but said they could not rule out the disaster would be sparked by a lab leak.

The next pandemic could spark from a disease with a 40 percent mortality rate within just two decades, top virologists say — warning Covid could have been just the tip of the pandemic iceberg.

Three virus experts who agreed a respiratory virus — spread via droplets from coughs and sneezes — was most likely to trigger the next fast-spreading disease that causes a global shutdown.

They said the infamous 'disease X' would most likely appear after a farm worker is infected with an animal-borne disease that mutates, but said they could not rule out the disaster would be sparked by a lab leak, a main theory as to the origin of the Covid pandemic.

It was also possible, they warned, for the outbreak to be even worse than the Covid pandemic, pointing to the 1918 influenza outbreak, which killed an estimated 50million people globally, compared to the seven million deaths from Covid.

Top culprits for the next pandemic, the experts speculated, were another coronavirus and avian influenza — a virus that infects birds but could possibly jump to humans. This disease has led to the slaughter of five million birds in the US this year in an attempt to prevent an outbreak. The experts, though, could not rule out other diseases like Ebola and outbreaks from insect-borne diseases like malaria and yellow fever.

Below reveals the opinions of three experts on what could cause the next pandemic and where it could come from:

Dr Leonard Mermel: Avian influenza

An infectious disease expert told DailyMail.com he believes the next pandemic will be caused by an avian influenza that mutates to spread rapidly between humans.

Avian influenza, also referred to as bird flu and H5N1, is a virus that primarily infects birds and tends to be spread via respiratory droplets. In rare cases, this virus can cross the species divide and infect mammals — including humans.

Dr Martin Hirsch: Avian influenza or coronaviruses

A virologist, a doctor who studies the management and prevention of infection, with more than 50 years of experience and who has worked in the most high-risk BSL-4 labs also said the next pandemic could be sparked by an Avian influenza, but added it could also begin with a coronavirus.

Dr Martin Hirsch, currently at Massachusetts General Hospital, warned the outbreak would likely be sparked when the viruses infect an intermediary animal — like a pig — and mutate, allowing them to be transmitted among humans.

Dr Elmer Gray: Insect-borne diseases

An entomologist, or a scientist specialized in the study of insects, has warned Americans cannot dismiss disease outbreaks caused by mosquitoes and ticks.

Dr Elmer Gray, at the University of Georgia, said warming temperatures coupled with globalization had generated a situation where the US must take it 'year by year' when it comes to disease outbreaks, though he stopped short of saying these kinds of viruses would spark an all-out pandemic.

Editor: CH

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