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不显著能任性发顶刊!还津津有味地讨论不显著的实证结果!

计量经济圈 计量经济圈 2022-09-04


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前面,我们引荐过“SSCI期刊竟公开征集“不显著的实证结果”的专刊文章!”,在学界引起了一些讨论。大家一致认可显著的实证结果,而对于不显著的结果,我们一贯地认为对于知识的增长作用不大。不过,今天就给大家引荐几篇发表在AER、ECM、JEP等期刊上的文章,看看作者(包括诺贝尔经济学奖得主)如何津津有味地讨论他们不显著的实证结果。
Abadie, Alberto. 2006. "Poverty, Political Freedom, and the Roots of Terrorism." American Economic Review, 96 (2): 50-56. IV estimation
关于Abadie, Alberto,参看:1.合成控制法创始人如何用SCM做实证呢?这些规定动作一个都不能少!2.再谈合成控制法SCM, 帮你寻找因果推断控制组
看看文中不显著实证结果,欲知作者如何津津有味地讨论这些不显著的结果的,请直接下载文章:


Abdulkadirog˘lu, Atila, Joshua Angrist, and Parag Pathak. 2014. “The Elite Illusion: Achievement Effects at Boston and New York Exam Schools.” Econometrica 82 (1): 137–96.
Parents gauge school quality in part by the level of student achievement and a school's racial and socioeconomic mix. The importance of school characteristics in the housing market can be seen in the jump in house prices at school district boundaries where peer characteristics change. The question of whether schools with more attractive peers are really better in a value-added sense remains open, however. This paper uses a fuzzy regression-discontinuity design to evaluate the causal effects of peer characteristics. Our design exploits admissions cutoffs at Boston and New York City's heavily over-subscribed exam schools. Successful applicants near admissions cutoffs for the least selective of these schools move from schools with scores near the bottom of the state SAT score distribution to schools with scores near the median. Successful applicants near admissions cutoffs for the most selective of these schools move from above-average schools to schools with students whose scores fall in the extreme upper tail. Exam school students can also expect to study with fewer nonwhite classmates than unsuccessful applicants. Our estimates suggest that the marked changes in peer characteristics at exam school admissions cutoffs have little causal effect on test scores or college quality.

RDD estimation

关于Parag Pathak,参看:1.AEA的小诺贝尔经济学奖公布, 41位青年才俊做了些什么,2.AEA公布2017-19年度最受关注的十大研究话题, 给你的选题方向!3.2019斯隆研究奖公布, 华人金融学教授曾得近50万资助,4.TOP5的JPE新任主编和编辑介绍, 提前了解其研究方法和擅长领域! 5.哈佛,MIT等名校印度裔与华裔的较量, 结果出乎意料?6.一份使用工具变量回归的AER文章清单, 思路惊奇定会让你脑洞大开!

看看文中不显著实证结果,欲知作者如何津津有味地讨论这些不显著的结果的,请直接下载文章:



Angrist, Joshua D., Victor Lavy, Jetson Leder-Luis, and Adi Shany. 2019. “Maimonides Rule Redux.” American Economic Review: Insights 1 (3): 309–24.
We use Maimonides' rule as an instrument for class size in large Israeli samples from 2002–2011. In contrast with Angrist and Lavy (1999), newer estimates show no evidence of class size effects. The new data also reveal enrollment manipulation near Maimonides cutoffs. A modified rule that uses birthdays to impute enrollment circumvents manipulation while still generating precisely estimated zeros. In both old and new data, Maimonides' rule is unrelated to socioeconomic characteristics conditional on a few controls. Enrollment manipulation therefore appears to be innocuous. We briefly discuss possible explanations for the disappearance of Israeli class size effects since the early 1990s.
关于Angrist, Joshua,参看:1.诺奖得主Angrist的因果推断课程文献读物单子再次更新了, 还提供了其他三门课程,1.J.Angrist就因果推断长篇评论+音频版,2.Angrist因果推断课程,经典期刊读物汇集,3.经济研究中的自然实验者, Natural Experimenter,4.USA经管商博士最狂热崇拜的计量书籍震撼出炉,5.计量经济学的“公信力革命”, 1983-2010,6.哪本因果推断书籍最好?我们给你整理好了这个书单!7.你应该阅读哪本因果推断书籍: 一份进阶流程图和简短书评列表,8.Sims与安神的论战从未停止,JOE卷入第三次大论战,9.我是安神, 我为因果推断计量代言,10.安神+克拉克奖得主的RDD论文, 断点回归设计,11.政策效应评估的四种方法(Policy evaluation),12.Guido Imbens: 潜在结果和有向无环图在因果推断实证研究中的应用实例讲解(二),13.应用计量经济学现状: 因果推断与政策评估最全综述,14.ECM主编: 潜在结果和有向无环图在因果推断实证研究中的应用权威讲解,15.微观计量经济学在理论和应用上走过的30年,16.微观计量经济学:政策效应评估,17.断点回归设计RDD分类与操作案例,18.广义合成控制法gsynth, Stata运行程序release,19.基于模型还是基于设计的实证方法? 诺奖候选人给你的insights!20.劳动经济学“诺贝尔奖”公布了, 获得者实至名归!21.三重差分法运行和示例, 附上运行代码和结果解析!22.拐点回归设计RKD概览, 及其开展实证研究的经典示例
看看文中不显著实证结果,欲知作者如何津津有味地讨论这些不显著的结果的,请直接下载文章:




Krueger, Alan B., and Jitka Malecˇková. 2003. “Education, Poverty and Terrorism: Is There a Causal Connection?” Journal of Economic Perspectives 17 (4): 119–44
The paper investigates whether there is a connection between poverty or low education and terrorism. We review evidence on hate crimes, which are closely related to terrorism; the occurrence of hate crimes is largely independent of economic conditions. We analyze data on support for attacks against Israeli targets from public opinion polls conducted in the West Bank and Gaza Strip; support for violent attacks does not decrease among those with higher education and higher living standards. The core contribution of the paper is a statistical analysis of the determinants of participation in Hezbollah militant activities; having a living standard above the poverty line or a secondary or higher education is positively associated with participation in Hezbollah. We also find that Israeli Jewish settlers who attacked Palestinians in the West Bank in the early 1980s were overwhelmingly from high-paying occupations. Although our results are tentative and exploratory, they suggest that neither poverty nor education has a direct, causal impact on terrorism.
关于Krueger, Alan,参看:1.又一诺贝尔奖级大师自杀了! 抑郁症让其无法自拔!2.自杀逝世一周年后,AK教授生前最后一篇文章终于见刊了!3.因果推断的实证革命,搞前沿计量都需要阅读的大作
看看文中不显著实证结果,欲知作者如何津津有味地讨论这些不显著的结果的,请直接下载文章:



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