Why the firing of Mark Esper is just the start of a very wild 72 daysAnalysis by Chris Cillizza, CNN Editor-at-large，Updated 2157 GMT (0557 HKT) November 9, 2020CNN总编辑Chris Cillizza分析，更新于2020年11月9日 Trump fired Mark Esper. Here's who could be next图片： 川普解雇了马克·埃斯珀。下一个可能是谁Why the firing of Mark Esper is just the start of a very wi(CNN) On Monday afternoon, President Donald Trump fired his secretary of defense, Mark Esper, via tweet.(CNN)周一下午，美国总统川普以推特方式解雇了他的国防部长马克·埃斯珀。Which, well, wasn't terribly surprising. Esper had been on Trump's naughty list for months -- ever since he opposed using the military to crack down on sometimes-violent protests that broke out in major American cities following the death of George Floyd in May. Several weeks before the election, Esper had a resignation letter pre-written. So he knew his day was coming.这并不奇怪。埃斯珀几个月来一直在川普的不听话者名单上——自从他反对动用军队镇压因5月乔治·弗洛伊德去世后在美国主要城市爆发的暴力抗议活动以来便已是川普眼中钉。大选前几周，埃斯珀事先已写好了一封辞职信。所以他知道自己的这个日子快到了。The removal of Esper then isn't terribly notable in and of itself. (In ANY other administration, firing the secretary of defense in a tweet would be a massive story, of course. As would a president on his fourth acting secretary of defense in two years.)埃斯珀的被解职本身并不是很显著的事情。（当然，在其他任何一届政府中，在推特上直接解雇国防部长将是一个巨大的故事。就像一位总统在两年内第四次代理国防部长一样。）But what Esper's firing means is something that is very much worth taking note of, because it marks the first move in what could well be the wildest and most unbound 72 days in modern American political history.但埃斯珀的解雇意味着一件非常值得注意的事情，因为它标志着美国现代政治史上最狂野和最不受约束的72天的第一次举措。Here's why: While Trump has yet to concede the election -- and his top campaign officials insisted in an all-staff meeting on Monday that he's still very much alive in the race -- the reality has and will continue to set in over these coming days and weeks that he is just not going to win. And that is going to be a very tough pill to swallow.原因如下：虽然川普尚未在选举中认输，而且他的竞选高层官员在周一的全体员工会议上坚称，他在竞选中仍然非常主动活跃，但在未来的几天和几周里，现实已经并将继续出现：他就是不可能赢得大选。这将是一个很难下咽的药丸。"Winning is easy," Trump told his campaign staff on Election Day. Losing is never easy. Not for me it's not."“获胜很容易，”川普在选举日对他的竞选幕僚说。失败从来都不容易。对我来说接受失败从不是件容易的事情。”So losing will make Trump very angry. And embittered. And vengeful. And less willing to even attempt to paint within the lines of acceptable behavior.所以输了大选会让川普非常生气。且痛苦。且令他心怀报复。更不愿意在可接受的行为范围内行事。Which means that the firing of Esper is the tip of the spear when it comes to what we should expect from Trump between now and January 20, 2021. If you thought the President was unconstrained up until now, well, in the words of the Joker, you ain't seen nothing yet.这就是说，从现在到2021年1月20日，我们应该对川普抱有什么样的期望，解雇埃斯珀就是常矛之尖的显现。如果你认为总统到现在为止是不受约束的，那么，用好莱坞电影《小丑》的话来说，你还什么都没看到。In the run-up to the election, Trump repeatedly attacked FBI Director Christopher Wray for his failure to effectively investigate alleged corruption within the bureau. The Washington Post reported in late October that Trump was considering removing Wray after the election, a move that could also jeopardize Attorney General William Barr, a Trump loyalist who has fallen out of favor with the President because of the delays in the investigation of potential wrongdoing in the FBI's counter-intelligence probe during the 2016 election. Axios also reported in late October that Trump might fire CIA chief Gina Haspel.在大选前夕，川普多次抨击联邦调查局局长克里斯托弗·瑞未能有效调查局内涉嫌腐败的行为。《华盛顿邮报》10月底报道称，川普正考虑在大选后撤换韦伊，此举也可能危及川普的忠实支持者、总检察长威廉·巴尔，这位川普的忠实支持者在2016年大选中联邦调查局的反情报调查中可能存在的不当行为时有延误，因此他已失去总统的欢心。阿希奥斯10月底还报道，川普可能解雇中情局局长吉娜·哈斯佩尔。The elimination of the heads of the Defense Department, CIA and FBI -- not to mention, potentially, the Justice Department -- could be just the start in an across-the-government culling of those deemed insufficiently loyal to Trump. According to a senior administration official speaking with CNN's Jake Tapper, "John McEntee, director of the White House Presidential Personnel Office, is spreading the word throughout the administration that if he hears of anyone looking for another job they will be fired."国防部、中情局和联邦调查局（更不用说，可能还有司法部）的负责人被淘汰出局，这可能只是整个政府中对那些被认为对川普不够忠诚的人的一个开始。据CNN记者杰克·塔珀采访的一位高级政府官员说，“白宫总统人事办公室主任约翰·麦肯特正在整个政府中传播这样一个消息：如果他听说有人在找另一份工作，他们就将被解雇。”And then will come the pardons and commutations. As Mark Osler, a professor of law at the University of St. Thomas, wrote on CNN.com on Oct. 29:接下来还有赦免和减刑。正如CNN10月29日发表的圣托马斯大学法学教授马克·奥斯勒所写："Win or lose, President Donald Trump may well seek to pardon members of his family, officials in his administration, and possibly himself -- even, as Gerald Ford did for Richard Nixon, before any of them are convicted of anything."“无论输赢，唐纳德·川普总统很可能会寻求赦免他的家庭成员，他的政府官员，甚至可能是他自己——甚至，就像杰拉尔德·福特为理查德·尼克松所做的那样，在他们中的任何人被判有罪之前。”Which, yeah. Especially when you consider that Trump commuted the sentence of his longtime political Svengali, Roger Stone, in July -- not to mention the likes of former Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.是的。尤其是当你考虑到川普在7月对陪伴他长期政治生涯的斯文加利减刑的时候——更不用说前伊利诺伊州州长罗德·布拉戈耶维奇和前马里科帕县治安官乔·阿帕约等。And then there are the other moves -- whether via executive order or on the regulatory front -- that we might not even be thinking about right now. And that we may not even realize Trump has done until he is formally out of office at noon on January 20.此外，还有其他举措——无论是通过行政命令还是在监管方面——我们现在可能根本就没有考虑过。而我们甚至可能要到川普在1月20日中午正式离任之后才能意识到他已做了这些。 The point here is simple: Pandora's box is open. The genie is out of the bottle. Pick whatever cliche you like but they all add up to the same thing: A President who has always seen his office as a way to reward friends and punish enemies will now have a 10-week period that will be increasingly consequence-free for him as the realization that he will not win a second term sets in. (The only thing potentially tying Trump's hands somewhat is his interest in running again in 2024. But his most loyal supporters would likely see any actions taken by Trump in his final days as a fitting kiss-off for the establishment in both parties.)这里的重点很简单：潘多拉的盒子是打开的。精灵从瓶子里出来了。不管你喜欢什么样的陈词滥调，但它们加起来都是一样的：一个一直把自己的办公室视为奖赏朋友、惩罚敌人的方式的总统现在将有10周的时间，随着他意识到自己不会赢得第二个任期，这对他来说将越来越不用担心会有任何后果。（唯一可能牵制川普手脚的是他对2024年再次参选的兴趣。但他最忠实的支持者可能会认为，川普在他最后几天采取的任何行动都是对两党建制派的恰当吻别。）Donald Trump in a good mood -- and somewhat reined in by his advisers and future political concerns -- is a scary thing. An irate Trump with lots of power and no compunction about how he uses it? That's downright terrifying.一个心情不错、但受到其顾问和未来政治担忧牵制的唐纳德·川普，这已是一件可怕的事情。一个怒气冲冲、拥有强大的权力、却对如何使用权力毫不愧疚的的川普呢？真是太恐怖了。来源：时文英语