编者按：中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长王文在环球时报英文版第56篇“变局”专栏中表示，过去40多年的中国发展，已走了万水千山，但未来仍需要跋山涉水，中国人不会轻易谈成功，更不会谈取代谁。本期人大重阳君为您推荐专栏的英文版、中文译文。
本文英文版在环球时报的版面截图
2020年俄罗斯瓦尔代俱乐部年会，我有幸受邀主旨发言。普京总统在年会最后一天接受诸多参会者提问，大赞中国是新的超级大国。与我同组发言的“私募大佬”雷·达里奥先生也讲述中国取代美国的未来。他近期在《金融时报》撰文，更详细地阐述“我们每天都看到中国以不一样的方式获得成功”。在国际舆论对华看法被特朗普政府带偏的背景下，有普京、雷·达里奥等全球政治、商业领袖肯定中国，当然是值得高兴的事情。作为中国学者，我对他们的支持表示赞赏。但另一方面，我并不认为，中国会成为像美国那样的新超级大国。美国在全球有600多个军事基地，美国社会的价值观仍很受国际欢迎，美国大学是全球年轻人最热衷的留学目的地，美元占全球外汇储备约50%。在可预见的将来，中国实力很难达到美国的高度。如果把美国比作一座破旧的摩天大楼，必须承认，这座大楼很旧，可能会倒塌，但仍是世界最高的。美国霸权在衰落，但没有任何一个国家能取代美国。我英文专栏的外国读者朋友们或许不相信，我每年会上百次受邀参加中国政府的咨询会，从来没有听过任何一位官员谈过中国要取代美国，也从来没有遇到过规划中国成为全球超级大国的中国官员。这真的是事实。无论在改革开放40周年，还是深圳特区建设40周年，习近平主席在纪念讲话中均高度肯定了改革开放与深圳特区建设的发展成就，但他从未说过“中国成功了”。即使抗疫，中国早在3月中旬就基本控制住了疫情蔓延，但中国政府的定调也不是“成功”，而只是说“取得了阶段性胜利”。相反，习近平常常提醒国人的是，需要戒骄戒躁。他的一句话令我印象非常深刻。“我们现在所处的，是一个船到中流浪更急、人到半山路更陡的时候，是一个愈进愈难、愈进愈险而又不进则退、非进不可的时候。”是的，过去40多年的中国发展，已走了万水千山，但未来仍需要跋山涉水，中国人不会轻易谈成功，更不会谈取代谁。当然，目前中国国内舆论的确有一些骄傲自满的情绪，也有不少人认为外国不行，中国很好。但那只是中国复杂社会舆情的一部分。近年来，中国社会的最大变化在于，对于本国国力的认识呈现了多元化的光谱。认为中国实力很强、较强、一般、较弱、很弱的观点，在中国民众中都找到相应的支持者。我一直主张，分领域、分产业的评价中国实力。至于综合国力，在新冠疫情仍在肆虐的节骨眼上，我希望中国能够低调一些，更谦逊一些，也希望外国朋友不必把中国看得很辉煌。疫情至今已导致超过110万人死亡，数千万家庭破产。相当多人被美国蛊惑，认为病毒是中国人实验室或早期瞒报造成的，推特、脸书上到处都是对中国恨之入骨的声音。那些恨中国的人，大可不必对中国撒火。中国其实也挺不容易。尽管相对于大多数国家，中国率先复苏，实现全年度的正增长。但真实情况的另一面是，疫情也使中国处在30年来最困难的内外部环境。国内经济增长率上一次降到4%以下的是1990年（3.91%），当时西方集体制裁中国。全球发展正进入下行期，抱团取暖恐怕是最好的选择。如我在《强国长征路》一书中所写，中国人走在长征路上，需要以用持久战心态看待当下的挑战与机遇。中国人须更成熟，不以物喜，不以己悲，扎扎实实，谦虚谨慎，方可最终成就民族复兴之梦。
以下为英文版
Why China takes humble rejuvenation road
By Wang Wen
I was one of the keynote speakers of the 2020 Annual Meeting of the Valdai Discussion Club in Russia. Russian President Vladimir Putin took questions from participants on the last day of the meeting. Putin said that China is now heading for superpower status. US billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio, who spoke on the same panel with me, also talked about the future of China replacing the US. In a recent article for the Financial Times, he stated, "every day we see China succeeding in exceptional ways."Influenced by US President Donald Trump's administration, international public opinion toward China has been biased. Against such a background, it's happy to hear that global political and commercial leaders such as Putin and Dalio are hailing China. As a Chinese scholar, I appreciate their support.But on the other hand, I don't think China will become a new superpower like the US. The US has established more than 600 military bases around the world. US social values are popular among international society, and many US universities are the most preferred destinations by young people across the world. Besides, the US dollar accounts for about 60 percent of global foreign exchange reserves. In the foreseeable future, it will be difficult for China to become as strong as the US in these areas. However, if we compare the US to a dilapidated skyscraper, it must be admitted that the building is really quite old. It could even collapse. But it's still the highest in the world. While US hegemony is declining, no other country can currently replace it.You may not believe, but it's a fact that every year I was invited to the Chinese government's consultation meetings, but at none of them have I ever heard of any Chinese official talking about China's replacing the US. Nor have I encountered any government official who is making plans for China to become a global superpower. President Xi Jinping spoke highly of the achievements of both reform and opening-up, praising the 40-year development of Shenzhen Special Economic Zone. Yet he has never mentioned that China has succeeded. Even though China basically curbed the spread of the deadly novel coronavirus as early as the middle of March, the Chinese government does not portray it as a "success." It merely said this was a "phased victory."President Xi often reminds the Chinese people that they should avoid arrogance and rash behavior. His narrative deeply impressed me, especially this line: "We are now in a state very much like sailing to the midstream of a river or climbing halfway up a mountain, as the goings get tough, we must press ahead and there's no turning back."China has gone a long way over the past four decades. However, we should overcome more difficulties and challenges in the future. Chinese people will not easily label them as successes per se, nor consider replacing any country.It is true that some public opinion express some conceited sentiments, claiming that China is becoming superior to other countries. But this is merely part of the oceans of opinions out there. In recent years, one of the most significant aspects of China's social evolution involves a diverse awareness of the country's national power.I have always advocated evaluating China's strength by sectors and industries. As for China's overall national power, I hope that China will be humbler and more low-key. I hope that foreign friends will not see China with exaggerated interpretations at this critical time when the COVID-19 pandemic is still raging across the world.The pandemic has so far killed more than 1.1 million people and bankrupted tens of millions of families. This is tragic. Quite a few people have been tricked by the US into believing that the virus is the result of Chinese labs or early cover-ups and hatred toward China is spewed all over Twitter and Facebook.But those who hate China need not vent their anger on us. China has not had it easy as well. Even though China led itself into a recovery and achieved some positive economic growth, the reality is that the pandemic has put China into one of its worst periods in modern history. The last time domestic growth fell below 4 percent was in 1990 (3.91 percent), when the West imposed collective sanctions on China.Global development is entering a downturn. Right now, huddling together is probably the best option for the world. As I wrote in my book Great Power's Long March Road, the Chinese are on a long march now.We need to look at the current challenges and opportunities with a mentality of battling in a protracted war. We must be more mature, not pleased by gains. Meanwhile, Chinese people ought not to be saddened by personal losses. This is a time to be down-to-earth, modest and prudent, in order to finally achieve the dream of national rejuvenation.（The author is professor and executive dean of Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University of China, and executive director of China-US People-to-People Exchange Research Center. His latest book is Great Power's Long March Road.）
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中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资董事长裘国根先生向母校捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。
作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。
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